Overtime

January football has a way of stripping everything back—no excuses, no margin for error, just pressure and execution. Wild Card weekend gave fans exactly what they’ve been waiting for, with tight finishes, momentum swings, upsets, and dramatic comebacks decided by the smallest of moments. Some teams proved they belong on this stage, others found out just how unforgiving playoff football can be.

Now the stakes rise again. The Divisional Round is where contenders separate themselves from feel-good stories, where depth, coaching, and composure matter just as much as star power. Every remaining team has a path to the Super Bowl, but only those built to handle the chaos of January will survive. With that in mind, here are my picks for the Divisional Round.

My Picks:

Buffalo 17 – 14 Denver at Mile High Stadium

Josh Allen leads the Bills into Mile High this weekend following a statement win over Jacksonville, but this matchup shapes up very differently. The Jaguars entered last week with the league’s top-ranked rushing defence, limiting James Cook’s impact, and Denver presents a similar challenge with the NFL’s second-ranked run defence and a stronger unit against the pass. That combination points toward a lower-scoring afternoon for Buffalo. On the other side, the Broncos face an even tougher task against the Bills’ league-best passing defence. Denver has struggled to establish the run against top-tier opponents this season, leaning heavily on the passing game, which plays directly into Buffalo’s strengths. Expect a tight, methodical contest, but Allen’s ability to sustain drives and create late when it matters gives the Bills a narrow edge in a close, low-scoring game.

San Francisco 10 – 21 Seattle at Lumen Field

San Francisco enters the Divisional Round severely undermanned, most notably after losing tight end George Kittle to a season-ending Achilles injury and now faces its toughest test yet in a road matchup against division rival Seattle. The Seahawks finished 14–3 and showcased their dominance when these teams met in Week 18, holding the 49ers to just three points in a 13–3 win. Seattle boasts the NFL’s top-ranked defence, a daunting matchup for a 49ers offense already searching for answers. While San Francisco’s defence ranks a respectable 13th, it simply doesn’t measure up to a fully healthy Seahawks attack led by Sam Darnold and a loaded receiving group featuring Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Super Bowl LVI MVP Cooper Kupp. At home in one of the league’s toughest environments, Seattle’s balance and physicality should be enough to control the game and advance.

Houston 14 – 24 New England at Gillette Stadium

This matchup is difficult to project after both teams leaned heavily on their defences last week, but New England gets the nod at home. Houston’s defence is elite, ranked second in the league, yet C.J. Stroud looked uncomfortable under playoff pressure, fumbling five times and throwing an interception after not fumbling once during the regular season. That kind of ball security issue is a major concern against a Patriots defence ranked fourth and designed to capitalise on mistakes. While the Patriots’ offense wasn’t flawless, MVP candidate Drake Maye delivered in key moments despite left tackle Will Campbell struggling and being statistically responsible for two of the five sacks allowed. In a game likely dictated by defence and field position, New England’s ability to protect the football and execute in critical situations should be enough to see them through in front of a home crowd.

Los Angeles 24 – Chicago 21 at Soldier Field

This was easily the toughest pick of the Divisional Round, and it shapes up as another close contest after these teams’ recent Wild Card meeting. Ultimately, experience is the deciding factor. An offense led by veteran MVP candidate Matthew Stafford gives the Rams an edge in high-pressure moments, especially with elite weapons in Puka Nacua, who led the NFL in receptions, and Davante Adams, the league’s touchdown reception leader. Defensively, Los Angeles also holds an advantage, ranking 10th in the NFL compared to Chicago’s 23rd. That said, the Bears cannot be discounted after rallying from an 18-point halftime deficit against Green Bay last week, and their secondary—anchored by Jaylon Johnson and Kevin Byard III—is capable of keeping this game tight. In the end, Stafford’s composure and the Rams’ postseason experience should be enough to escape Soldier Field with a narrow win.

At this stage of the playoffs, there are no easy matchups—only decisions made under pressure. Experience, defence, and situational execution feel like the separating factors this weekend, and those traits often decide who’s still standing when the dust settles. If Wild Card weekend was any indication, the Divisional Round won’t disappoint.